Stress, doubt, and hope – from the start of the rebel offensive, the Syrian community endured days filled with uncertainty. Then, on Sunday morning, came the news that had once seemed unthinkable: Assad had been toppled. Nothing lasts forever.
On Wednesday, November 27, the first news of a rebel offensive against the Assad-controlled regions of Syria spread. From Idlib, where the group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) had governed since 2018, they attacked the government forces and took Aleppo within a few days.
Many Syrians inside and outside the country were afraid to feel happy: “There have been too many disappointments”. There were and are many questions that held people back from celebrating. A comment many friends made was: I am afraid of being happy “too early” – what if Assad and the Russians would keep on bombing cities that were already taken by the rebels? What if the Russians would defend their military basis on the Mediterranean coast? What if fighting broke out between different rebel groups?
Since the start of the offensive in the North East of Syria the speed of the rebel’s advance was hard to believe. The more they advanced, the more we – my partner, as well as German and Syrian friends – got addicted to our screens. Besides Arab and international media plus social media that provided lots of information from the ground – as well as a lot of misinformation – we used a live map where the updates were depicted in a map. Disbelief and excitement spread as one government-controlled city after the other fell, as our friend Modar commented: “It’s like there was Vaseline on the streets” – they seemed to move almost without resistance.
Can we trust the rebels?
A big question was, whether the HTS was to be trusted. They and their leader Ahmed al-Sharaa (known as Abu Mohammed al-Jolani) have evolved from al-Qaeda and have fought as Jihadists. Since 2016 they changed their tone but many remain cautious. Another reason to be skeptical about Jolani’s good intentions is the HTS’ rule in Idlib since 2018. They did set up a working administration but also imprisoned people who did not agree with their strategies, triggering protests against their rule. However, since the beginning of their offensive, al-Jolani (e.g. on CNN), and spokespersons of the rebel groups on national TV spread the following message: We want a Syria for all Syrians, we respect the different religious and ethnic groups. They apparently negotiated with local community leaders in many places before entering towns, therefore reducing fighting and clashes.
How enthusiastic my friends were was also related to where their families live in Syria. Especially people in Syria’s North East, the Kurdish-controlled areas, have less to celebrate: In addition to the HTS that seems to be focused on unity at the moment, the so-called Syrian National Army (SNA), a Turkey-led and controlled militia is part of the offensive. They, in contrast to HTS, headed east and targeted the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)-controlled region East of Aleppo and West of the Euphrates, where the city of Manbij became the front line. The SDF is a Kurdish-led coalition. An estimated 120.000 people fled in the first days of the offensive to Kurdish-controlled areas alone, there are reports about mistreatment and kidnapping of both soldiers and civilians.
Hope can be dangerous
Hope, however, grew with every video shared of statues of father and son Assad being toppled: in Aleppo, later in Hama, and then in Homs. When they started falling in Damascus’ suburbs, it was hard to believe that the regime would survive the night. My friends and I, as well as their families in Syria, stayed up, constantly updating live feeds and chatting with others about the latest updates.
As we looked at the map, many stories of the years of the revolution came back to the surface: “They took Duma! That’s where the regime used chemical weapons in 2018”; “Al-Houla, in May 2012 the regime massacred 108 people – that triggered the first international sanctions against Assad”; “Hama, in 1982 Hafez al-Assad killed up to 40.000 people there in a horrible massacre.” The crowds celebrating in Homs on Sunday in the square with the clock tower moved many to tears. The square had been the site of huge demonstrations at the beginning of the revolution, and the videos from back then were once again widely shared on social media.
During the last days, the opposition groups freed many prisoners from notorious sites of Assad’s regime all over the country. Almost immediately Videos and stories began to circulate: Some people were freed who had been reported dead to their families years ago. Others came out of prison after decades, having been imprisoned so long ago that relatives had given up hope of finding them alive. Hope in these circumstances is powerful – but the fear of this hope being shattered again by disappointment looms large, too. As Wafa Mustafa, a Syrian activist in Berlin writes: Hope feels dangerous. In this case, she referred to her hopes to learn about her father’s fate who has been forcibly disappeared by the Assad Regime since 2013.
My partner’s father is concerned about the truths that are awaiting Syrians: the crimes committed in those prisons will only become comprehensible when they are put into broad daylight now. A first hint of how many lives have been lost, is the number of those released from prisons these days. It is far from matching those who were forcibly disappeared.
And then it was official: Nothing is forever
Later at night, we started asking ourselves: So, when is the fall of the regime actually true? Is it when Assad’s soldiers abandon the most important military airport near Damascus, or when the presidential palace is abandoned? Eventually, in the early morning hours, a group of representatives of rebel groups gave a speech on national TV, and the Syrian army declared the regime toppled.
It slowly trickled in: the regime has fallen. Assad left the country, as far as we know. Assad will not control Syrian’s lives anymore. Nothing is forever.
Tears, head shakes, calls to friends and family. The next morning the chats are full of priorly unimaginable details: The national TV Channel is on, and there is the revolutionary flag on the table. Syriatel, the biggest mobile network company in the country, owned by the government, changed its Instagram logo to the new flag, the people on the coast, where the last Assad stronghold was expected, are toppling the statues and celebrating.
This is the moment to celebrate. All the questions about how free Syrians will actually be in the next months to choose their political system and their path to the future, hover above. The international community needs to protect Syria’s revolution by all means. However, involvement by Turkey, Israel and the whole range of regional and international actors is feared. As I write, on December 8, Israel is conducting airstrikes in the Syrian region of Daraa. Disagreements and clashes between the HTS, the SNA and the SDF are another possible scenario.
And still, the first steps within Syria are promising – and most importantly: Assad is gone.
